Signal construction

Queries use pytrends with a comparison anchor term so the 0–100 scale is consistent across dates. We batch requests to avoid rate limits and cache aggressively. Each series is converted to a weekly-to-daily interpolated z-score. Data degrades gracefully if the API is blocked.

Limitations & caveats

Unofficial API with no SLA. Sampling noise is documented; two queries for the same term on the same day can return different values. Geographic normalization limited to 'US'.

Evaluation results

Rank IC (Spearman) with Newey-West standard errors, walk-forward with 21-day embargo. Multiple-testing correction: Benjamini-Hochberg at q=0.05 across all signal × horizon × cohort tests.

No results yet. Data collection is ongoing. Results appear once sufficient out-of-sample history has accumulated. See the power analysis for timeline estimates.

Data coverage

S&P 500 names
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with ≥1 observation
Retail basket
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with ≥1 observation
Days collected
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